I am, at age 85, at the upper end of life expectancy. This is a fact of life. Being a Purdue PhD, we were taught statistics as a tool to look to the future and as an aid in decision making. I posed a couple of questions to Perplexity, first given I’m 85 what is my life expectancy, and second, given I’m on PD how does this compute? The following provides answers: (Hint: I have already been on some type of dialysis for over two years so I’m beating the odds. I intend to continue to do so!)
An 85-year-old male in the USA has a life expectancy of approximately 5.24 years. This means that, on average, an 85-year-old man can expect to live until around the age of 90. This estimate can vary based on individual health conditions and lifestyle factors. Additionally, there is a 75% chance that an 85-year-old man will survive for at least 2 more years and a 25% chance that he will live for an additional 9 years. These probabilities highlight the variability in life expectancy due to factors such as comorbid conditions and functional status.
For an 85-year-old male on peritoneal dialysis in the USA, life expectancy is notably reduced compared to the general population. Studies indicate that elderly patients on peritoneal dialysis have a mean survival time of around 38.9 months (approximately 3.24 years) with survival rates of 78.8% at 1 year, 66.8% at 2 years, and 50.9% at 3 years after starting dialysis[1]. Another study suggests that elderly patients on chronic peritoneal dialysis have a 5-year survival rate of 30%[2].
Moreover, the life expectancy for seniors aged 85 and older on dialysis is about 2 years on average, compared to 3.5 years for their healthy peers[4]. Factors such as advanced age, comorbid conditions, and episodes of peritonitis significantly impact mortality in these patients[1][2].
Citations:
[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4449459/
[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4033330/
[3] https://academic.oup.com/ndt/article/27/9/3581/1858404
[4] https://www.griswoldcare.com/blog/pros-and-cons-of-dialysis-in-elderly-adults/
[5] https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/836978
[6] https://archive.nytimes.com/newoldage.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/the-unspoken-diagnosis-old-age/
[7] https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/article/71/9/1171/2605446?login=false
[8] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2822435/
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