From my history you may correctly ascertain that I spent many years on the edge of a cliff concerning when the kidney failure shoe would drop. I knew firsthand from my lab reports that my eGFR numbers were going the wrong way in conjunction with creatinine values steadily increasing. But to what extent, what timeframe, when would I have to go on dialysis as a result of complete kidney failure? Being an engineer and a Purdue Krannert School of Managment PhD I wanted numbers, probabilities, etc. No doctor even came close to a WAG (Wild-ass Guess) let alone a statement like “The probability is 0.62 that you will not require dialysis for at least five years.) I was just told that there is no cure and it’s only going to get worse.

This blog will fix this gap for readers willing to gather some common lab numbers and click boxes on a website or iPhone/Android app. You will be empowered to calculate what I just laid out above on your own, and to play “what-ifs” with creatinine and other lab variables. For example, how high does my creatinine have to increase to put me in a high-risk category for dialysis? Rather than the current state of worry because your creatinine readings are going south placing you in a static kidney failure category without any indication of timing of pending failure, you will know where the cliff’s edge is. And failure is pending; kidney failure WILL happen if you live long enough to ring the bell. Trust me, I arrived there after thirty years of being under the gun or being on cliff’s edge.

There is a web site named MedCalc that provides free access to hundreds of medical -related calculations. The one of interest herein is by a MD/PhD by the name of Navdeep Tangri and is named

Kidney Failure Risk Calculator

It predicts progression to kidney failure in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is located at this link. It requires inputting the following information: eGFR, sex, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, age in years, albumin, phosphorus, bicarbonate, and calcium. These values are common to labs reports for those with failing kidneys. The output provides an estimate of your five-year risk of experiencing kidney failure. The embedded screenshot below is my result.

Since I am already on dialysis after experiencing greatly diminished kidney functioning, we would expect the dire results thus obtained. Try the algorithm. You might be enlightened.