At my age (84 and counting) a point is reached where we have to face the probability of meeting the Grim Reaper in due course. This blog is about gathering existing information on statistically when my meet and greet may take place, hopefully way in the future.
Our USA Federal System’s Social Security Admin maintains a website (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/population/longevity.html) wherein you can ascertain your projected statistical age at death assuming that all is well at the present. This is a starting point for me and neglects any of the difficulties extant in my aging body. The chart below captured from this site suggests, all else being equal, I have 6.4 years of additional life expectancy for a total of 91.0 years.
I assume then, 91.0 years to be a workable upper asymptote as the SSA site associated no probabilities with this projection, but should have. We now turn to attempt to uncover recent data on life expectancy for my age group that is also receiving dialysis. I did not and could not find any specifics only generalities such as “it depends…”
From here (https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/need/statistics) I gleaned “Mortality rates vary depending on the kidney failure treatment. After one year of treatment, those on dialysis have a 15-20% mortality rate, with a 5-year survival rate of under 50%. Persons who receive transplants have a survival rate of about 80% after 5 years.”
But age was not factored in. If we accept the 5-year survival rate as 50% disregarding any other factors, this reduces my life expectancy down to 3 or so more years.
I guess the bottom line is that we’re looking at 3-6 years but will take whatever God deals us. We Will Not Ring The Bell!
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